Android “Fragmentation” Will Never Be a Problem — Here’s Why

Today, a web development blog called Android 2.x the “Internet Explorer 6″ of mobile operating systems. Supposedly, Eclair, Froyo, and Gingerbread form a group of Android software versions that will take more than eleven years to die off. Fortunately, this analysis is flawed, leading us to a completely false conclusion about Android fragmentation. The argument states that non-updated Android devices limit the free range of application and web developers from truly exploiting the latest enhancements found in the newest versions of Android browsers and operating systems.

But, the truth is that Android will never have a major fragmentation problem like the Internet Explorer one on Windows computers. Internet Explorer has hindered the progress of the web for more than nine years, because users refuse (or don’t know how) to update to newer versions. Thankfully, this will not be a problem with the Android operating system.

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First, Android operating system fragmentation will constantly be at war with mobile manufacturers who are updating Android devices to please consumers. Yes, it may take longer than users desire to update individual devices. But, the important thing here is that manufacturers are indeed bringing already-released devices up to newer versions of Android. To an extent, these updates will constantly bring down the fragmentation of Android and stop many devices from falling lower on the Android version ladder.

Of course, not all devices receive operating system updates. And, manufacturers seem to take their sweet time developing these upgrades. That’s why points two through three reinforce the update cycle to keep the Android operating system distribution concentrated.

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Android is an open source operating system. Due to that fact, and the commitment from partners of the Open Handset Alliance, external developers are allowed to create their own forks of the Android source code as custom ROMs. The custom ROM community at the center of Android’s user-base is extremely large. In fact, the largest Android developer forums boast over four million members.

These communities create custom firmwares for devices that contain the power to upgrade older devices to newer Android versions. For example, my Motorola Atrix 4G is on Android 2.3.6 officially. Since Android is open source, developers have created custom Android 4.0 firmwares to keep me updated.

Still, only a small fraction of users will utilize these external development communities. That’s why points three and four serve only to supplement the onslaught against Android OS fragmentation.

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Google created an open application environment in their Android Market— one that has flourished since 2008. Unlike Apple, which strictly screens applications based on sets of complex rules, Google uses a hands-off approach. Due to this approach, there are a dozen custom browsers available on the Android Market. This allows users to get the benefits of a modern web browser even if they are stuck on an older version of Android.

Mozilla’s Firefox for Android is the perfect example. Firefox for Android represents one of the greatest achievements for mobile browsing since the introduction of mobile Safari in 2007. The Android version of Firefox contains all the same elements of the traditional Firefox on personal computers, including well-built HTML5 support.

Since Google allows virtually any type of application on the market, progress (both browser- and OS-wise) will not be hindered by fragmentation. Hypothetical scenario: HTML6 is introduced sometime in the future. Older Android phones with the stock browser won’t support HTML6 webpages. Still, a newer version of Firefox downloadable on the Market may support HTML6 rendering. Problem solved; browser fragmentation avoided.

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Still, all of these reasons are insufficient in their abilities to quell fragmentation on the Android platform. The main reason that Android fragmentation will never be a major problem: carrier contracts. The one or two-year contract precedent by worldwide cellular carriers means that the average consumer updates their phone at least once every two years.

When the consumer updates his phone, he or she will likely be herded towards a device sporting the latest and greatest version of Android. Carrier contracts have the power to (almost) completely eliminate old Android versions two years after their launch. In fact, we can see this holding true in the graph above. Android versions more than two years old are nearly extinct. Notice the very small portion taken up by Android 2.0 or lower versioned operating systems. That’s a result of the carrier upgrade cycle.

Due to the manufacturer device update precedent, Android’s burgeoning external development community, the open nature of the Market, and carrier contract cycles, Android will never experience the kind of fragmentation we see in the web browser industry. Sure, an old operating system may float around for a couple of years. But, after that we’ll see it swiftly killed off as consumers continue to upgrade their devices. Fears of an Android future with 5-10 relevant OS versions dividing the Android ecosystem are wildly unfounded.